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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-29 01:44:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 282343 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could still form during the next couple of days if the disturbance does not get absorbed into the stronger low pressure system located to its east. The broad low is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to westward over the central tropical Atlantic during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants of Peter is located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, and the chances of this system becoming a short-lived tropical depression or storm appear to be decreasing. This system is expected to move northeastward at about 10 mph into a region of very strong upper-level winds on Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Stewart
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atlantic
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tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-28 19:24:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 281723 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A broad area of low pressure located over the far eastern Atlantic several hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This shower activity is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants of Peter located about 400 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing gale-force winds. The associated showers and thunderstorms have become less organized during the past few hours, and the chances of this system becoming a short lived tropical depression or storm appear to be decreasing. This system is expected to move northeastward at about 10 mph into a region of very strong upper-level winds on Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-28 13:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 281133 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a tropical wave and broad area of low pressure located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the disturbance moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants of Peter is located about 350 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. The associated showers and thunderstorms have increased a little this morning, but are still not well organized. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression while moving northeastward at about 10 mph before upper-level winds increase on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-28 07:15:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 280515 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a day or two while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. The shower and thunderstorm activity associated with this system has become less organized since early Monday. Although strong upper-level winds are likely to prevent significant development, this system could still become a short-lived tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By Wednesday, however, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-09-28 01:42:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 272342 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Sep 27 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. A well-defined low pressure system associated with the remnants of Peter is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to remain marginally conducive for a short-lived tropical depression to form tonight or Tuesday while the system moves northeastward at about 10 mph. By Wednesday, however, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located just offshore the west coast of Africa continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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