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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-06-02 07:04:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 020504 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-06-02 01:34:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 012334 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-06-01 19:35:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 011734 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Recent satellite data indicate that circulation of a low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has become a little better defined today. However, the associated showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-06-01 13:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 011132 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the next few days. If the system remains over water, a tropical depression could form before it moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2019 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation ------------------------------------------------------------- Andrea AN-dree-uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor Dorian DOR-ee-an Olga OAL-guh Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien suh-BASH-chuhn Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee Karen KAIR-ren One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that forms this season will be Barry. This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2019-06-01 07:07:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 010507 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers is centered near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward over the southern Bay of Campeche during the weekend and near the east coast of Mexico early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible as long as it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12, 6, and 3, respectively. The list of names for 2019 is as follows: Name Pronunciation Name Pronunciation ------------------------------------------------------------- Andrea AN-dree-uh Lorenzo loh-REN-zoh Barry BAIR-ree Melissa meh-LIH-suh Chantal shahn-TAHL Nestor NES-tor Dorian DOR-ee-an Olga OAL-guh Erin AIR-rin Pablo PAHB-lo Fernand fair-NAHN Rebekah reh-BEH-kuh Gabrielle ga-bree-ELL Sebastien suh-BASH-chuhn Humberto oom-BAIR-toh Tanya TAHN-yuh Imelda ee-MEHL-dah Van van Jerry JEHR-ee Wendy WEN-dee Karen KAIR-ren One named cyclone, Andrea, already formed this year in May. The next named storm that forms this season will be Barry. This product, the Tropical Weather Outlook, briefly describes significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next five days. The issuance times of this product are 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 AM, and 8 PM EDT. After the change to standard time in November, the issuance times are 1 AM, 7 AM, 1 PM, and 7 PM EST. A Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued to provide updates, as necessary, in between the regularly scheduled issuances of the Tropical Weather Outlook. Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued under the same WMO and AWIPS headers as the regular Tropical Weather Outlooks. A standard package of products, consisting of the tropical cyclone public advisory, the forecast/advisory, the cyclone discussion, and a wind speed probability product, is issued every six hours for all ongoing tropical cyclones. In addition, a special advisory package may be issued at any time to advise of significant unexpected changes or to modify watches or warnings. The Tropical Cyclone Update is a brief statement to inform of significant changes in a tropical cyclone or to post or cancel watches or warnings. It is used in lieu of or to precede the issuance of a special advisory package. Tropical Cyclone Updates, which can be issued at any time, can be found under WMO header WTNT61-65 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCUAT1-5. All National Hurricane Center text and graphical products are available on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov. You can also interact with NHC on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC. Notifications are available via Twitter when select National Hurricane Center products are issued. Information about our Atlantic Twitter feed (@NHC_Atlantic) is available at https://www.hurricanes.gov/twitter.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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