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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 19:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091736 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with the area of low pressure located about 100 miles east-northeast of Barbados continue to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the system currently lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to move through portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and Hispaniola on Wednesday. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required this afternoon with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Showers and thunderstorms in association with an elongated low pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles have diminished. Environmental conditions have become unfavorable and development of this system is no longer expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 13:46:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 091146 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure area located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Latto/Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 07:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 090531 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system located about 380 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late tonight, then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure area located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Development of this system is becoming less likely during the next few days while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-09 01:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 082345 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A low pressure system located about 400 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form while the low moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with shorter-than-normal lead times for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have changed little in association with an elongated low pressure system located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-08 19:33:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 081733 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 8 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable to support some gradual development over the next few days, and this system could become a tropical depression while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles late Monday, and then move near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and near Hispaniola around the middle of this week. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system, as it could bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of that area. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the tropical Atlantic about midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles have diminished this morning. Although environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical depression later this week while it moves toward the west-southwest or west at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
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