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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 46
2016-10-09 16:54:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 091454 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ELIZABETH CTY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKY MT NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CHERRY PT NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW RIVER NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SURF CITY NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-09 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG WINDS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 the center of MATTHEW was located near 35.2, -73.7 with movement E at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Public Advisory Number 46
2016-10-09 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 ...STRONG WINDS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 73.7W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Hurricane Watches have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew was located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 73.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move farther offshore of the coast of the North Carolina Outer Banks today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and the low is expected to be absorbed within a frontal boundary Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A coastal marine observing site near Hatteras, North Carolina, recently reported a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been observed within the past hour or so at Dare County Airport near Manteo, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area this afternoon, and then gradually diminish by this evening. STORM SURGE: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation through this afternoon along the coast from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. Water levels should subside by this evening. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Rainfall will diminish across the coastal Mid-Atlantic by early afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of less than an inch are possible across Delaware and eastern Maryland. Life-threatening flooding will continue over portions of eastern North Carolina that have received record rains from Matthew. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the southeastern and Mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States during the next couple of days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Forecast Advisory Number 46
2016-10-09 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091452 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 73.7W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 90SW 90NW. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 200SW 160NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 260SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 73.7W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.3N 71.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 220SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 35.7N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 37.0N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 73.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW (AT4/AL142016)
2016-10-09 13:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND SOUND-SIDE STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 9 the center of MATTHEW was located near 35.0, -74.5 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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