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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 41A
2020-09-22 19:44:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221744 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 200 PM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 ...EXTREMELY LARGE TEDDY TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.3N 64.1W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. Additional watches and/or warnings could be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 64.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected by early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia on Wednesday, and then near or over Newfoundland by Wednesday night, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is likely later today and Wednesday, Teddy should be a strong post-tropical cyclone when it moves near and over Nova Scotia. Teddy is an extremely large hurricane. Satellite-derived winds and a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission indicate that hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 550 miles (890 km). Buoy 44150, located about 150 n mi north of the center, recently reported a significant wave height of 36 ft (11 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches) based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area soon. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas late today or early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-22 17:00:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 15:00:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 15:00:17 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 41
2020-09-22 17:00:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221459 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 22 2020 Teddy is in the late stages of extratropical transition. The hurricane has taken on a large comma shape in satellite images, with a huge dry-air intrusion aloft near the center and a cold front on the western side of the cyclone. While it is tempting to call it an extratropical now, temperature data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Teddy has maintained a significant warm core, and the strongest winds on the southwestern side appear to be more related to the cyclone and not the front. Lastly, deep convection is trying to re-develop near the center, another indication that the transition is not yet done. Thus Teddy will remain a hurricane on this advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, a blend of the 122-kt flight-level winds, 75-kt SFMR values, and global model analyses since much of this large hurricane is not being sampled. Teddy should transition into a post-tropical cyclone by the time it reaches Nova Scotia and steadily weaken as it moves over the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. The cyclone should turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow ahead of the next trough in the mid-latitudes. This will take Post-Tropical Teddy over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland during the next couple of days, with the cyclone likely being absorbed into a larger extratropical cyclone west of Greenland in 2-3 days. There are no significant changes to report, except to show a sooner dissipation, which is consistent with the latest global models solutions. The hurricane-force and tropical-storm-force winds fields, plus 12-ft seas area, from Teddy have just about doubled overnight, so it is important to note that hazards will extend much farther than normal from the center of this hurricane. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter reported hurricane-force surface winds 120 n mi northwest of the center, and Canadian buoy 44150 has recently reported 34-ft significant wave heights, with the buoy still about 180 n mi from the center. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada late today through Thursday. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia through Wednesday. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected with Teddy through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 39.6N 63.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 41.8N 64.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 44.8N 62.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 24/0000Z 48.8N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 24/1200Z 54.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 41
2020-09-22 16:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 221456 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 9( 9) 19(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 14(14) 37(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X 22(22) 52(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) PTX BASQUES 50 X 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 20 68(88) 6(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 44(44) 18(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) EDDY POINT NS 64 X 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SYDNEY NS 34 4 52(56) 28(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) SYDNEY NS 50 X 11(11) 28(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) SYDNEY NS 64 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 57 21(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) SABLE ISLAND 50 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HALIFAX NS 34 70 27(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) HALIFAX NS 50 7 77(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) HALIFAX NS 64 X 23(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 34 73 4(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) YARMOUTH NS 50 20 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MONCTON NB 34 12 30(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MONCTON NB 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 22 16(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) EASTPORT ME 34 37 5(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) BAR HARBOR ME 34 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) AUGUSTA ME 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-22 16:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of Teddy was located near 39.6, -63.7 with movement NNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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