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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-08-18 13:47:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 181147 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala have changed little in organization since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday or Wednesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions continue to support slow development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of the week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity near another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has decreased since yesterday. Any development of this system during the next couple of days is expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-08-18 07:30:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 180530 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing a limited area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California has increased since yesterday. Environmental conditions continue to support slow development, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing cloudiness and showers. Some development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-08-18 01:48:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 172348 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by early next week, and a tropical depression is expected to form on Monday or Tuesday while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A tropical wave located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-08-17 19:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171739 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. NOAA and the National Science Foundation are currently conducting a research mission in this system, and the data from the mission indicate that the circulation remains broad and elongated, and surface pressures are relatively high. Still, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2019-08-17 13:47:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 171147 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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