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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-12 01:16:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 112315 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms, partially associated with the remnants of Norbert, have increased in organization a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form later tonight or on Monday while the system moves slowly toward the west-northwest or northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-11 19:11:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111711 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms, partially associated with the remnants of Norbert, are showing signs of organization a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-11 13:20:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111120 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Oct 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small area of low pressure is located over the far southwestern portion of eastern Pacific about 1900 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. While thunderstorm activity has recently increased with the low, environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for further development. The low will likely continue moving westward around 15 mph for the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated a few hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are partially associated with the remnants of Norbert. Upper-level winds could gradually become more conducive for development during the next few days while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-11 07:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

349 ABPZ20 KNHC 110550 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: An elongated area of low pressure is producing a small area of showers and thunderstorms nearly 1800 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Further development of this system is not anticipated. The low will likely continue moving westward around 15 mph for the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated in part with the remnants of Norbert. This system is forecast to move very little during the next couple of days, and then move slowly toward the northwest after that. Some slight development is possible by the middle of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-10-11 01:15:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 102315 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system located about 1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula remain disorganized, and recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low's circulation is starting to become elongated. Due to surrounding dry air and increasing upper-level winds, environmental conditions are becoming less conducive for development of this low while it moves westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with the remnants of Norbert. This system is forecast to move very little during the next couple of days, and little to no development is expected during that time. Some development appears possible by the middle of next week when the system begins to move toward the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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