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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-12 19:43:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121742 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Elida, located several hundred miles southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Satellite images suggest that a better-defined low pressure area is forming about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is becoming a little better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-12 13:54:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 121154 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located about 500 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days before the system reaches cooler waters over the weekend. This system is forecast to move west-northwestward at about 15 mph away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward just offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form near or west of the border between the National Hurricane Center and Central Pacific Hurricane Center areas of responsibility. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward in the central Pacific basin. Future information on this system will be included in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && The Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook is issued under WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP, and is available on the web at www.nhc.noaa.gov/?cpac $$ Forecaster Berg

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-12 07:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 120545 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located more than 400 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An elongated area of low pressure located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California continues to produce a broad of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to move slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-12 01:32:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 112332 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula remains elongated. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days. The system is not expected to move as quickly westward as originally forecast, and a slower westward to west-northwestward motion is now anticipated over the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the coast of southwest Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward into the central Pacific basin. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2020-08-11 19:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 111753 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Elida, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Satellite imagery indicates that a poorly defined low pressure area has formed in association with the elongated area of disturbed weather located around 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days. The system is expected to move slowly westward toward the central Pacific basin during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. An area of disturbed weather is located a few hundred miles south- southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop from this system well south or southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development thereafter, and this system will likely become a tropical depression late this week or over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

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