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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-30 07:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300550 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 100 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 90.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SSW OF GREENSBURG LOUISIANA ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and satellite data near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 90.8 West. Ida is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana early this morning and move into southwestern Mississippi later this morning. Ida is then forecast to move over central and northeastern Mississippi this afternoon and tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). During the past hour, a sustained wind of 57 mph (92 km/h) and a gust to 68 mph (109 km/h) were measured by a Weatherflow station in Mandeville, Louisiana. Along the Gulf coast, a NOAA Ocean Service observing station at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi, recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next couple of hours. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through this morning. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley today. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through today. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast today and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through this morning over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama later today. SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates are being discontinued after the 100 AM CDT Intermediate Advisory. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nora Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-29 19:53:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 586 WTPZ34 KNHC 291753 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1200 PM MDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...NORA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.1N 107.3W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning south of Escuinapa and has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Escuinapa to Altata. The Hurricane Watch from north of Altata to Topolobampo has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Escuinapa to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 107.3 West. Nora is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected to continue tonight through Tuesday. Nora is forecast to move very near and roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico early this week. However, even a small deviation to the right of the forecast track could cause Nora to move inland and dissipate within the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the couple of days as the center moves roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. However, rapid weakening will likely occur if the center moves inland sooner than forecast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area in mainland Mexico, and are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across the coastal portions of the states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. Heavy rainfall is likely along the west coast of Mexico from Colima to Sonora through late week as Nora lifts northward through the Gulf of California. Rainfall of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches is possible. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches is possible in Baja California Sur. Toward the middle and latter part of the week, moisture associated with Nora is likely to bring heavy rainfall and the potential for scattered flash flooding to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Storm Grace Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-17 13:58:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 171158 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...GRACE NEARING JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 76.1W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has changed the Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Cabo Catoche to Punta Allen A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 76.1 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move near or over Jamaica today. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands tonight, and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Grace could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico late Wednesday and early Thursday Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti early this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area this afternoon and evening, and over the Cayman Islands beginning tonight into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area tonight and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas today. This heavy rainfall should lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula....3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 9 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Fred Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-08-13 19:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 131731 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021 ...FRED PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 78.9W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF CAIBARIEN CUBA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, and Camaguey * The southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in the Bahamas, elsewhere in Cuba, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of Fred. Additional watches and warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Interests in the Florida Panhandle should also monitor the progress of Fred. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Saturday. On the forecast track, Fred is expected to continue moving along or near the north coast of central Cuba through tonight, be near the Florida Keys on Saturday, and move near or west of the west coast of the Florida peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow strengthening is expected, and Fred could become a tropical storm again tonight or Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Today through Monday, 3 to 7 inches of rain is anticipated across the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding, and potentially worsen ongoing minor to isolated moderate river flooding over northern Florida. From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Florida beginning Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: There will be a risk of isolated tornadoes beginning Saturday afternoon over parts of central and south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 16A
2021-07-04 13:58:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041158 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM EDT Sun Jul 04 2021 ...ELSA VERY NEAR JAMAICA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 76.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF CABO CRUZ CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required this morning. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 76.2 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move away from the southern portion of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and continue to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba today, and approach central Cuba tonight. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today as Elsa approaches the south-central coast of Cuba. However, gradual weakening is forecast to occur tonight and Monday when Elsa moves across Cuba. After Elsa emerges over the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf of Mexico some slight restrengthening is possible. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in southern portions of Haiti for a few more hours, and these conditions are expected to spread across Jamaica later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in portions of eastern and central Cuba later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas in the Cayman Islands by tonight, in western Cuba by early Monday, and the Florida Keys by late Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 feet Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Haiti and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated total amounts of 15 inches remains possible today. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which could be significant. Across portions of Cuba today into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands today into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 5 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa will impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward along the coast of Jamaica and the southern coast of Cuba during the next day or two. Swells will increase near the Florida Keys and south Florida early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts
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