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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-09-01 10:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 010842 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 24.8W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 23.9W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.5N 27.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 30.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.1N 33.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.6N 36.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 39.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 42.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 18.2N 46.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.3N 50.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 24.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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RigER CEO Op-ed: Flying Blind into the Storm
2021-08-31 16:00:00| OGI
Despite activity continuing to improve, pricing remains stubbornly close to breakeven for the oilfield services sector. In this article, RigER CEO John Mark Cavitt discusses several ways OFS executives can improve margins in the current pricing environment.
Tropical Storm Kate Graphics
2021-08-31 10:45:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 31 Aug 2021 08:45:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 31 Aug 2021 08:45:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kate Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-31 10:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 310844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Kate Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 AM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Kate remains a strongly sheared tropical storm with the associated deep convection occurring in intermittent bursts in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, owing to 850-200-mb west-northwesterly vertical wind shear of at least 30 kt. The most recent Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates remain at 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity set for this advisory. This intensity is consistent with an earlier SSMI-S passive microwave satellite overpass that showed wind speeds of 30-35 kt on the west side of Kate where no convection/rain was present. The initial motion estimate is 360/04 kt. Kate's forward motion has slowed to as low 2 kt during the psst 6 hours, likely due to the hindering effects of the west-northwesterly shear direction and weak steering currents since Kate has recently moved into a weakness in the low- mid-level subtropical ridge. However, the latest NHC track guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will begin moving northward at a slightly faster forward speed as Kate moves through a break in the ridge. In about 24 hours, a mid-level ridge to the northeast and east of Kate is forecast to build westward, forcing the cyclone on a more northwestward trajectory that should continue through Thursday. By Friday, a mid- to upper-level trough moving eastward over the western Atlantic is forecast to gradually lift out Kate toward the north, and accelerate the cyclone toward the northeast on Saturday. The new NHC forecast track is similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory track, and lies near the left edge of the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track-model envelope. The intensity forecast is not as straightforward as the track forecast. The aforementioned hostile shear conditions are predicted by the regional and global models, especially the ECMWF model, to gradually abate over the next 18-24 hours, with the magnitude of the shear to decrease to less than 10 kt by 24-36 hours when Kate will be moving over 28.5 deg C water temperatures. If Kate can survive the next 18 hours or so, which is possible since the 850-300-mb shear is much less at only 10-15 kt, then some restrengthening could occur, especially in the 24-48-hour period when the cyclone will be located underneath a small upper-level anticyclone. Countering that, however, is the somewhat dry air (near-50-percent humidity) in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that could limit the formation of inner-core convection. Thus for now, the new official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, which shows Kate remaining as a low-end tropical storm through the 96-hour period. This scenario is consistent with the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models. On day 5, Kate is forecast to dissipate when the cyclone or its remnants are expected to merge with an extratropical low and associated frontal system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 23.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 23.9N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.2N 51.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 26.6N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 28.3N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 29.9N 54.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 31.5N 54.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 35.1N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-08-31 10:38:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED KATE MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Aug 31 the center of Kate was located near 23.0, -50.9 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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