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Tropical Storm Sally Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2020-09-13 17:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:52:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Graphics
2020-09-13 16:59:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:59:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 15:39:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-13 16:58:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sun, 13 Sep 2020 14:58:09 GMT
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Tropical Storm Sally Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2020-09-13 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 114 FONT14 KNHC 131457 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SALLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) GFMX 290N 850W 34 9 4(13) 3(16) 3(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 5( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 6(19) 1(20) X(20) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 4(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 3(17) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) 6(24) 1(25) 1(26) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 10(23) 6(29) 1(30) 1(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 27 53(80) 4(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 290N 870W 50 4 23(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 19(40) 7(47) 1(48) X(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 23(57) 8(65) 1(66) X(66) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 15(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X 3( 3) 32(35) 29(64) 7(71) 1(72) X(72) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 5(35) 1(36) X(36) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) BURAS LA 34 X 13(13) 54(67) 13(80) 4(84) 1(85) X(85) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 34(36) 17(53) 3(56) 1(57) X(57) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 46(48) 28(76) 4(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 22(22) 27(49) 4(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X 4( 4) 18(22) 3(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 14(37) 3(40) X(40) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 3( 3) 34(37) 30(67) 9(76) 1(77) X(77) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) 8(45) 2(47) X(47) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 4( 5) 27(32) 14(46) 7(53) 1(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 35(48) 14(62) 3(65) X(65) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 8(29) 1(30) X(30) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 29(52) 13(65) 2(67) X(67) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 8(34) 1(35) X(35) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 14(33) 1(34) 1(35) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 27(34) 12(46) 3(49) X(49) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 27(36) 14(50) 2(52) X(52) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19) X(19) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 9(22) 2(24) X(24) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 10(26) 2(28) X(28) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 2 19(21) 17(38) 5(43) 5(48) X(48) 1(49) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEESLER AB 34 1 16(17) 38(55) 14(69) 4(73) X(73) X(73) KEESLER AB 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-09-13 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 133 WTNT44 KNHC 131457 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sally Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 Although the center of Sally remains near the northwestern edge of the deep convection, there is a large area of convection and some banding evident over the southeastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the storm this morning reported a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 50 kt, and these data are the basis for the 50-kt initial wind speed. The plane reported minimum pressures in the 996-998 mb range, with the higher value being the most recent information available. Northwesterly shear continues over the cyclone, but this shear is expected to decrease later today and tonight as Sally moves beneath a narrow upper-level ridge axis. This more conducive upper-level pattern is expected to allow the tropical storm to strengthen while it moves over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday. Most of the intensity guidance calls for Sally to become a hurricane in about 24 hours and so does the official forecast. Additional strengthening is expected after that time and Sally could be slightly stronger at landfall than indicated below since it is forecast to reach the coast between the 36 h forecast point and 48 h when it is inland over southeast Louisiana. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the consensus aids through 24 hours and at or just above the SHIPS, LGEM and HFIP corrected consensus aids at 36 and 48 hours. Sally is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The tropical storm should continue on that general heading and speed over the next 12 to 24 hours as it steered around the southern flank of a mid-level ridge. After 24 hours, Sally is expected to be near the western portion of the ridge which should cause the storm to slow down and turn northwestward. The global models have trended toward slightly more ridging over the northern Gulf during the next 24 hours, and the track guidance has edged westward. The NHC track has been adjusted slightly westward and lies near the lastest run of the GFS, but is not as far west as the ECMWF and the various consensus aids. As Sally rounds the ridge in 48 to 72 h, the steering flow is expected to be quite weak, and a slow northward motion is forecast at that time. Afterward, a north-northeastward to northeastward motion should commence as the cyclone moves in that direction ahead of a short-wave trough. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average NHC track error at 36-48 h is 60-80 miles and the average intensity error is 10-15 mph. In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center. Unfortunately, confidence is increasing that Sally's expected slow forward speed near the Gulf Coast will exacerbate the storm surge and heavy rainfall threats. KEY MESSAGES: 1. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is now expected, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Monday from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Metropolitan New Orleans, with tropical storm conditions likely by Monday. Preparations should be rushed to completion in those areas. 3. Sally is expected to produce flash flooding across southwest and central Florida and prolong existing minor river flooding across west-central Florida through Monday. Widespread significant flash flooding and minor to isolated major river flooding is likely across portions of the central Gulf Coast Monday through the middle of the week, with flooding impacts spreading farther into the Southeast in the middle to late parts of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 27.5N 84.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 28.0N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 28.5N 88.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 28.9N 89.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 29.7N 90.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/0000Z 30.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z 31.5N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 33.6N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1200Z 34.8N 83.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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