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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-09-13 01:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122339 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 800 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 82.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF NAPLES FLORIDA ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 82.5 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. On Monday night and Tuesday, a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north are forecast. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. Marco Island, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 31 mph (50 km/h) and wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area by Monday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula through this evening, especially over the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches over the central Gulf Coast from Sunday into the middle of next week. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west- central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible through tonight over south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-12 22:49:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 122048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2020 ...SALLY MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 81.9W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne, and Mobile Bay. A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans. The Tropical Storm watch has been extended westward from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to the Alabama/Florida Border. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 81.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion is then expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center is forecast to move over the southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, and then move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border, including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL, including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible within the watch area by Monday. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible across the southern portion of the Florida peninsula through this evening, especially over the Florida Keys. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches over southern Florida and the Florida Keys through tonight. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected along the west coast of Florida through Sunday. This rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding across southern Florida and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. Sally is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches across the Florida Panhandle, and 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 18 inches over the Central Gulf Coast from Sunday into the middle of next week. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system that will continue to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flooding near the central Gulf Coast through the middle of next week. Flash, urban and rapid onset flooding along small streams and minor to moderate flooding on rivers is likely. SURF: Swells are expected to spread northward along the west- central coast of Florida and reach the Florida Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through tonight over south Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Paulette Public Advisory Number 24
2020-09-12 22:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 122045 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 58.5W ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 58.5 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or west-northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-12 22:42:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 122042 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 33.5W ABOUT 2030 MI...3265 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 33.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight increase in forward speed early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night. A faster rate of strengthening is possible early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-12 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 122033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020 ...RENE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 45.6W ABOUT 1200 MI...1935 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 45.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected by Sunday, and a slow westward motion is forecast by Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the system is forecast to turn west-southwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is possible over the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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