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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-07-28 19:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281743 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE... ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 54.8W ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maartin * Dominica A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 54.8 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions could begin reach portions of the north coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-28 16:58:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 281458 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 53.7W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius. The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maartin. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maartin Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Hanna Public Advisory Number 18
2020-07-27 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020
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Tropical Depression Hanna Public Advisory Number 17
2020-07-27 04:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020
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Tropical Depression Hanna Public Advisory Number 16
2020-07-26 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 262033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hanna Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 400 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020 ...HANNA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 100.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WSW OF MONTERREY MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in northeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of Hanna. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hanna was located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 100.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Hanna should continue to move farther inland over northeastern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center of Hanna moves farther inland. Hanna is expected to become a remnant low on Monday and dissipate by Monday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hanna can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml. RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce the following rain accumulations and flood threats through Monday: South Texas...Additional 2 to 5 inches. Storm total amounts 6 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Northern Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 16 inches. Northern Mexican states of northern Zacatecas, northern San Luis Potosi, and eastern Durango...1 to 4 inches. This rain will produce life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor river flooding in South Texas. Flash flooding and mudslides are likely across Northern Mexican states. SURF: Swells generated by Hanna will continue to affect much of the Texas and northeastern Mexico coasts through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through this evening across parts of south Texas NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Hanna. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. $$ Forecaster Brown
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