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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 19A
2020-08-02 01:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 012341 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 800 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 78.9W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for Eleuthera, New Providence, Andros Island, and the Abacos Islands SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Bimini, the Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 78.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is anticipated on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida tonight and move near or along the east coast of Florida Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast, and Isaias is expected to regain hurricane strength later tonight and early Sunday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Sunday night and continue through Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island, recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h). An unofficial observing station in Ft. Lauderdale Beach recently reported a wind gust of 39 mph (63 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida on Sunday and will spread northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life- threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Isaias Public Advisory Number 19
2020-08-01 22:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 012048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...ISAIAS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT WHILE IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 78.7W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been extended northward from Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina. The Hurricane Watch from Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina Interests elsewhere along the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required tonight or Sunday. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 78.7 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday and a turn toward the north and north- northeast on Monday and Tuesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will approach the southeast coast of Florida tonight and move near or along the east coast of Florida Sunday and Sunday night. On Monday and Tuesday, the center of Isaias will move quickly from offshore of the coast of Georgia into the southern mid-Atlantic states. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast, and Isaias is expected to regain hurricane strength tonight. Slow weakening is expected to begin Sunday night and continue through Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. During hew past couple of hours, a Weatherflow observing site at the Dania Pier in Broward County, Florida, reported a wind gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) in an outer rainband. More recently, a wind gust to 41 mph (67 km/h) was reported by a Weatherflow site in Juno Beach, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance aircraft data is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of the Northwestern Bahamas tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida on Sunday and will spread northward through Sunday night. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area in South Florida tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by Sunday night, and are possible in the watch area from northeast Florida to South Carolina on Monday. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida and coastal Georgia: 1 to 3 inches. Carolinas and the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 7 inches. Southeast New York and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life- threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding along the East Coast of the United States. Minor river flooding and isolated moderate river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast through Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Ten Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-01 22:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 012033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020 800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 23.5W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM N OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 23.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The weak system is expected to turn west-northwestward before it dissipates to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight or on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate tonight or on Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-08-01 19:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011740 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 ...ISAIAS EMERGING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 78.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM S OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the Miami NOAA Doppler weather radar near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 78.4 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over the Straits of Florida tonight, and approach the southeast coast of Florida early Sunday morning. Isaias is then forecast to move near or along the the east coast of the Florida peninsula Sunday and Sunday night. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Isaias has weakened after passing over Andros Island, some re-strengthening is expected tonight and Sunday morning when the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida and the Gulf Stream. Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane through Monday, followed by slow weakening beginning Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed at Nassau, Bahamas. Doppler radar indicates that tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas through today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, southeast New York, and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life- threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas in eastern Florida and across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory Number 18
2020-08-01 17:11:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 011510 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Isaias Advisory Number 18...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020 Corrected rainfall statement ...ISAIAS MAKING LANDFALL ON NORTHERN ANDROS ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 77.9W ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WSW OF NASSAU ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch from the Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Boca Raton to the Volusia/Flagler County Line Florida * Northwestern Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Hallandale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Ocean Reef to south of Boca Raton Florida * Lake Okeechobee * Volusia/Flagler County Line to Ponte Vedra Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Isaias. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Isaias was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bahamas radar near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 77.9 West. Isaias is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a north-northwestward motion by late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move over northern Andros Island during the next few hours and move near or over Grand Bahama Island in the Northwestern Bahamas later today. Isaias is forecast to move near the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Sunday. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased slightly to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Sunday, and Isaias is forecast to remain a hurricane during this time. Slow weakening is expected to begin by late Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). Reports from a U.S. Navy site on Andros Island indicate that sustained winds of 45 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) occurred about 3 hours ago. More recently, a sustained wind of 35 mph (56 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (77 km/h) were measured at Nassau, Bahamas. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Isaias can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach FL...2-4 ft North Miami Beach to Jupiter Inlet FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the Northwestern Bahamas. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue to spread over the Northwestern Bahamas through today. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area in Florida tonight and will spread northward through Sunday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area, and are possible within the watch area, over southern Florida by this afternoon or evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in northeast Florida by late Sunday, and are possible in the watch area in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Monday morning. RAINFALL: Isaias is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. Cuba: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 4 inches. Eastern Florida: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Northeast Florida into coastal Georgia: 1 to 2 inches. Carolinas into the mid Atlantic, including the southern and central Appalachians: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Across the Northeast, from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey, southeast New York, and much of New England: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall from Isaias could result in potentially life-threatening flash flooding in the Bahamas and flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas in eastern Florida and across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Minor river flooding is possible across portions of the Carolinas and into Virginia. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias are affecting portions of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These swells will spread along the east coast of Florida and the southeastern United States coast today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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