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Tropical Storm Nicholas Graphics
2021-09-13 07:45:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 05:45:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 04:31:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-09-13 06:46:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 13 Sep 2021 04:46:21 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-13 06:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130431 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Special Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1130 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 The center of Nicholas has re-formed about 150 n mi to the north-northwest of the previous feature we were tracking, as confirmed by aircraft reconnaissance and Brownsville radar, and this large change necessitates a special advisory. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, a blend of the reduced 56-kt flight level winds and 45-50 kt SFMR values recently found by the plane. Because of the re-formation, the track forecast has been accelerated to indicate a landfall about 12 hours sooner than the last advisory. The intensity forecast is about 5 kt stronger in the short term, but actually ends up near the same intensity at landfall as the last advisory because of less time over water. The track forecast is blended with the previous one after landfall, and the intensity forecast is lower after landfall because it is farther inland. No changes to the watches or warnings are required at this time. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Monday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0430Z 24.8N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 26.0N 96.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 28.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 29.4N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1200Z 30.8N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0000Z 31.3N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-09-13 06:30:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 130430 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 0430 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 AT 0430Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 930W 34 5 7(12) 3(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) FORT POLK LA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 4(16) 1(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 34 2 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 4(22) 1(23) X(23) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) 4(22) 2(24) X(24) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 5(23) 2(25) 2(27) X(27) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 6 22(28) 14(42) 2(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) GALVESTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 1 10(11) 35(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) FREEPORT TX 34 1 34(35) 18(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) FREEPORT TX 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 25 25(50) 3(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 8( 9) 17(26) 4(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 13 46(59) 11(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) MATAGORDA TX 50 X 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MATAGORDA TX 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 17 52(69) 7(76) X(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 18(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 42(45) 8(53) X(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) ROCKPORT TX 50 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 2 23(25) 8(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 69 17(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 270N 960W 50 3 22(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MCALLEN TX 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARLINGEN TX 34 10 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 22 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm Nicholas (AT4/AL142021)
2021-09-13 06:30:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICHOLAS RE-FORMS TO THE NORTH AND STRENGTHENS... As of 11:30 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 the center of Nicholas was located near 24.8, -96.3 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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