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Summary for Tropical Storm TRUDY (EP5/EP202014)
2014-10-18 07:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES... As of 11:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 the center of TRUDY was located near 16.2, -98.9 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm TRUDY Public Advisory Number 2A
2014-10-18 07:36:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 180536 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM TRUDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 1100 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014 ...SLOW-MOVING TRUDY TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...HIGH RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 98.9W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS ESTIMATED BY RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.9 WEST. TRUDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NORTHWESTWARD THOROUGH THE WARNING AREA OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY. RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm TRUDY Graphics
2014-10-18 04:57:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 02:57:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Oct 2014 02:52:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm TRUDY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-10-18 04:53:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 180253 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202014 0300 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 16 7(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 57 3(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) P MALDONADO 50 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Summary for Tropical Storm TRUDY (EP5/EP202014)
2014-10-18 04:52:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Oct 17 the center of TRUDY was located near 16.0, -99.0 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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