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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)

2021-06-25 22:50:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 the center of Enrique was located near 15.9, -103.3 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 3

2021-06-25 22:50:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252049 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.3W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Cabo Corrientes northward to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... *Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... *Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest expected to occur by Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2021-06-25 22:50:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252049 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 21(32) 5(37) X(37) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 19 22(41) 8(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 105W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 12(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 5 14(19) 18(37) 11(48) 4(52) 1(53) X(53) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 14 6(20) 4(24) 2(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) ZIHUATANEJO 34 7 4(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 11(17) 11(28) 2(30) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-06-25 22:49:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 252048 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM ZIHUATANEJO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... *ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 103.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 103.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 103.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

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