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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 8

2015-07-13 10:44:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130844 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 Dolores' convective cloud pattern has continued to improve overnight with a distinct CDO now evident along with a large curved band in the eastern semicircle. In addition, a warm spot has recently appeared near the center of the CDO, a possible precursor to the development of an eye. The ship Asia Excellence, call sign C6AX5, traversed the northeastern quadrant during the past several hours and reported winds of 55 kt. Based on that report and a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T3.7/59 kt, the intensity of Dolores has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt, and is based on continuity with the previous forecast and limited microwave fix data. The NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on Dolores maintaining a west-northwestward motion along with a decrease in forward speed through the forecast period as a strong ridge to its north holds steady. Some spread in the models occurs after 48 hours due to differences in how they handle the large trough along the U.S. west coast and how much it erodes the western portion of the ridge over the U.S. desert southwest and northwestern Mexico. The reliable ECMWF and GFS global models, and the regional HWRF model, keep the ridge intact across Baja California, and the official track forecast follows this scenario by keeping Dolores well to the south and southwest of Baja California. The latest NHC forecast lies close to a blend of those three model tracks. Dolores is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 28C for the next 48 hours or so, during which time the deep-layer vertical shear is expected to gradually weaken, especially after 24 hours when the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt. This combination, along with a moist mid-level environment, should allow for Dolores to continue to strengthen into a significant hurricane. Around 96-120 hours, Dolores is forecast to move over SSTs less than 26C, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which essentially brings Dolores to major hurricane status by 48-72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.6N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 16.9N 106.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 17.1N 107.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 17.4N 108.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 17.9N 109.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 19.2N 111.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 20.6N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 21.8N 116.6W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)

2015-07-13 10:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 the center of DOLORES was located near 16.6, -105.0 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 8

2015-07-13 10:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 130843 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 ...DOLORES STRENGTHENS SOME MORE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 105.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 105.0 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, Dolores will gradually move away from the southwestern coast of Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area this morning. RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from the state of Oaxaca to Nayarit, and eventually over the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches are possible. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to affect the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2015-07-13 10:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 130843 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 0900 UTC MON JUL 13 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 2(26) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 8(21) 2(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) P VALLARTA 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 3(15) X(15) 1(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 8 5(13) 3(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) 1(22) MANZANILLO 34 7 4(11) 2(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) L CARDENAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 21(38) 31(69) 5(74) 1(75) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 24(32) 6(38) 1(39) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 14(26) 4(30) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 6(16) 2(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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