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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-06-19 01:39:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182339 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DOLORES GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 102.5W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 102.5 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated through Saturday as the center of Dolores approaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is forecast once the center moves inland, and Dolores is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning tonight or on Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
2021-06-18 23:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 21:32:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 21:32:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-06-18 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 102.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 102.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 103.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N 104.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.2N 104.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.6N 105.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 102.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-18 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Dolores was located near 15.6, -102.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 3
2021-06-18 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DOLORES A LITTLE STRONGER... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 102.3W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 102.3 West. Dolores is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the northwest and then north-northwest at a increasing forward speed is expected tonight through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of southwestern or west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday afternoon. Dolores is then expected to move north-northwestward just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated through Saturday as the center of Dolores approaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is forecast once the center moves inland, and Dolores is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning tonight or on Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. A s a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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