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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics
2021-06-19 22:40:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:40:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Jun 2021 20:40:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 7
2021-06-19 22:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 192038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Dolores's circulation, and the associated weather, continue to move farther inland over west-central Mexico, but it's hard to tell how much of a surface circulation remains over the mountainous topography of the region. Deep convection continues to develop near the estimated center, likely with the help of some orographic lift of onshore flow. Based on a typical decay rate over land, Dolores's intensity is set at 45 kt, but there is higher-than-normal uncertainty in this estimate given the effects of the terrain. The heading remains toward the north-northwest (345 degrees), but the speed has increased to 15 kt, likely due to the mid-level circulation rotating around a mid-level low centered near Socorro Island. If the surface circulation has not yet been mangled by the mountainous terrain, it will soon, and the mid-level circulation should then continue north-northwestward through tonight. The new NHC forecast shows continued rapid weakening and depicts Dolores as a remnant low in 12 hours, but in reality the circulation may have dissipated by that time. This forecast reasoning follows the quick dissipation of vorticity indicated in the global model fields. Even though Dolores is moving farther inland, the coastal watches and warnings are being maintained on this advisory until there is no longer a threat of tropical-storm-force winds in those areas. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through tonight. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 20.3N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-06-19 22:38:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 192038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MANZANILLO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-19 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES WEAKENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATE OF JALISCO... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 20.3, -104.1 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-06-19 22:37:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 192037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 104.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 104.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 20/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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