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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2021-06-18 22:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182034 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 31(31) 18(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 6 56(62) 8(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MANZANILLO 50 X 15(15) 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MANZANILLO 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 64 11(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ZIHUATANEJO 34 55 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ACAPULCO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Dolores Graphics

2021-06-18 19:43:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 17:43:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 15:28:21 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)

2021-06-18 19:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Dolores was located near 15.1, -102.1 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 2A

2021-06-18 19:43:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 181743 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES SPREADING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 102.1W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 102.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north with an increase in forward speed Saturday and Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores is expected to cross the coast of west-central Mexico within the warning area Saturday evening. Dolores is then expected to move northward along the west-central coast of Mexico and then inland over northwestern Mexico Saturday night and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Dolores could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of west-central Mexico by Saturday evening. Weakening is expected Saturday night and Sunday while Dolores moves northward near and along the west-central coast of Mexico. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area Saturday night into Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Dolores will produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit during the next few days, with rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches expected with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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