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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)

2021-06-19 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DOLORES INTENSIFIES FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 17.0, -103.1 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2021-06-19 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 190851 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 18 18(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MANZANILLO 34 68 8(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) MANZANILLO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 72 X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) ZIHUATANEJO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE

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Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 5

2021-06-19 10:51:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 190851 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES INTENSIFIES FURTHER... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 103.1W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta San Telmo southward to Lazaro Cardenas Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 103.1 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual acceleration prior to landfall. Dolores is forecast to make landfall along the southwest coast of Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have incrased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional intensification is expected prior to landfall, and Dolores is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it makes landfall later today. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall and Dolores is expected to dissipate by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the warning area this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late this morning and afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit through the weekend. This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Additionally, 3 to 5 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches is expected for western Oaxaca, as well as southern Sinaloa. This may produce life threatening flash flooding. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake

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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-06-19 10:49:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 190849 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.1W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N 103.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 21.4N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE

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