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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-19 16:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 125 WTPZ44 KNHC 191437 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dolores Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Dolores's center is moving onshore near the Michoacan/Colima border a little to the northwest of Punta San Telmo, Mexico. Within its last few hours over water, Dolores's satellite presentation continued to improve, and an SSMIS microwave pass from 1155 UTC showed that the storm has a large, well-defined mid-level eye surrounded by a nearly closed eyewall. Dolores appears to be very close to hurricane strength, and its current intensity is set at 60 kt as a compromise between estimates of T3.5 and T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Dolores has been accelerating while approaching the coast, and its current motion is estimated to be toward the north-northwest (335 degrees) at 11 kt. With the center forecast to move farther inland through the day, the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico is expected to disrupt the surface circulation, and the model guidance generally shows the low-level vorticity dissipating in about 12 hours, or less. To maintain continuity with previous forecasts, the NHC official forecast maintains a track for 24 hours, showing Dolores weakening fast and degenerating to a remnant low over west-central Mexico by this time tomorrow. However, it is entirely possible that the surface circulation will have dissipated by Sunday morning, with the associated rains continuing to spread northward with the remnant mid-level circulation. Even though Dolores is making landfall, the hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico is being maintained on this advisory since gusts to hurricane force could be occurring to the east of where the center is moving onshore. Key Messages: 1. Even though Dolores had made landfall, tropical storm conditions are still occurring within the tropical storm warning area and will spread farther inland across west-central Mexico through the day and tonight. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible for a few more hours within the hurricane watch area. 2. Heavy rains are forecast over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend, which could result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 18.6N 103.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Dolores (EP4/EP042021)
2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DOLORES MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MICHOACAN/COLIMA BORDER JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 the center of Dolores was located near 18.6, -103.7 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Dolores Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 955 WTPZ24 KNHC 191436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO ESCUINAPA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 103.7W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.4N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.8N 104.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 103.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Dolores Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 957 FOPZ14 KNHC 191436 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 7 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MANZANILLO 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Dolores Public Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 16:36:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 956 WTPZ34 KNHC 191436 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dolores Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042021 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021 ...DOLORES MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MICHOACAN/COLIMA BORDER JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 103.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Cabo Corrientes to Escuinapa Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was making landfall on the southwestern coast of Mexico near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 103.7 West. Dolores is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Dolores will move farther inland across western Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Now that Dolores is making landfall, rapid weakening is expected later today and tonight while the center moves inland over the mountainous terrain of west-central Mexico. Dolores is likely to dissipate over west-central Mexico on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Dolores can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area and will continue to spread inland across portions of west-central Mexico through tonight. Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are still possible within the hurricane watch area for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area this evening through Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Dolores will produce heavy rainfall of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, and southern Sinaloa through the weekend. This will likely produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Additionally, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches is expected for western Oaxaca. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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