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Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-07-12 22:53:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122053 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 There has been no significant change in Dolores' organization during the past several hours. Satellite imagery continues to show most of the cyclone's deep convection remaining in a band over the northeastern semicircle of the circulation. This convective asymmetry is likely related to some west-northwesterly shear as diagnosed by UW-CIMSS and SHIPS shear analyses. An ASCAT-B pass showed the center barely underneath the convective mass, with peak uncontaminated winds around 45 kt. Based on the ASCAT data, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. The ASCAT pass showed the center of Dolores to be a bit farther south than previous estimates, and the heading is estimated to be more westerly or 295/09. A subtropical ridge over the south-central United States should guide Dolores generally west-northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours. The cyclone's heading should become more northwesterly by 72 hours, when Dolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. Later in the forecast period, Dolores' track should bend back toward the west- northwest as the subtropical ridge reasserts itself. The official track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of the previous one through 48 hours and slightly to the right after that. The track forecast after 48 hours is near a multi-model consensus that excludes the GFDL solution which unrealistically takes Dolores toward the Baja California peninsula. Thermodynamic variables in the near-storm environment are quite conducive for intensification, with sea surface temperatures of 29-30 deg C and plenty of deep-layer moisture. Some west- northwesterly shear is forecast to persist and perhaps even increase over the next day or so before decreasing from 72 hours through the remainder of the forecast period. However, the shear is not expected to be strong enough to impede steady intensification. With a sharp gradient in SSTs along 20N, the intensity late in the period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores gains by that time. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and is very similar to the multi-model consensus (ICON) through 48 hours but above ICON after that, closest to the SHIPS model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 104.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 18.9N 109.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm DOLORES (EP5/EP052015)
2015-07-12 22:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES DRENCHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 the center of DOLORES was located near 15.6, -103.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Public Advisory Number 6
2015-07-12 22:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 122053 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLORES ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 400 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM DOLORES DRENCHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 103.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dolores was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 103.0 West. Dolores is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a hurricane later on Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch tonight through Monday. RAINFALL: The outer rain bands of Dolores are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from the state of Oaxaca to Nayarit, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Dolores are expected to increase near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico during the next few days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm DOLORES Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-07-12 22:53:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 122053 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLORES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 3(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 11(21) 4(25) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) P VALLARTA 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 6(20) 2(22) X(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 7 12(19) 7(26) 3(29) 4(33) 1(34) 1(35) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 8 10(18) 6(24) 3(27) 3(30) 1(31) X(31) L CARDENAS 34 17 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) ZIHUATANEJO 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 31(47) 12(59) 3(62) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 2(29) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 7(24) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 9(21) 4(25) X(25) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm DOLORES Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-07-12 22:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 122051 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM DOLORES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052015 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.0W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.0W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 102.5W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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