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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 20
2015-09-23 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 230844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 500 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015 ...IDA MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 47.2W ABOUT 1045 MI...1685 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 47.2 West. Ida has been meandering for the past 12 hours or so but has generally been moving toward the south near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow eastward motion is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Thursday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 20
2015-09-23 10:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230844 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 47.2W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 47.2W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 45.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 45.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 45.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 23.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 26.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 47.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-09-23 04:52:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230252 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015 Last-light visible imagery, microwave imagery, and a timely ASCAT pass around 00Z showed that the center of Ida is located on the northeastern side of the larger gyre seen earlier today, just west of a new burst of deep convection. This structure is consistent with the 30 kt of westerly shear seen in UW-CIMSS satellite analyses. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass and in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 48 hours, with moderate to strong shear forecast to continue. By 72 hours the shear decreases a bit, which should allow for a little strengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the latest SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models. The initial position results in a relocation of the center to the northeast of the previous advisory with a slow east-southeastward drift as the initial motion. Ida is currently embedded in the base of a mid-latitude trough which should result in a continued slow east-southeastward motion during the next day or so followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast and then the north by 48 hours as the trough moves away. A slightly faster north-northwestward motion is forecast at days 3 through 5 as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the tropical cyclone. During the latter portion of the forecast period much of the guidance has shifted westward, now showing a weaker Ida remaining south of the mid-latitude westerlies through day 5. The NHC track during this time has been nudged to the left of the previous one adjusted for the initial position. However, out of respect for continuity the NHC forecast remains close to the ECMWF on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and is well right of the consensus aids. Given the large shift in the guidance this cycle, confidence is quite low in the track forecast late in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 20.9N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 20.7N 46.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 20.5N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 21.0N 45.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 21.6N 45.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 25.0N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 26.0N 47.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-23 04:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 02:50:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2015 02:50:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-23 04:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Sep 22 the center of IDA was located near 20.9, -46.8 with movement ESE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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