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Hurricane Ida Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics
2021-08-30 05:19:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 03:19:47 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2021-08-30 05:11:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 03:11:55 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Graphics
2021-08-30 04:46:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 02:46:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Aug 2021 03:22:54 GMT
Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-08-30 04:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 300244 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Although Ida has been inland over southeastern Louisiana for several hours, it is still a very well organized hurricane. Doppler radar images indicate that the hurricane continues to have a well-defined eye, though the eyewall has become a bit ragged on the southwest side. Beyond the inner core, rain bands remain well established, especially on the system's east side. Earlier this evening, there were reports of extreme wind gusts over 120 kt along the coast of southeastern Louisiana. Based on Doppler radar velocity data over the past hour or two, the initial intensity is estimated to be 90 kt. As Ida continues inland, rapid weakening is expected due to a combination of land interaction and an increase in wind shear. However, damaging winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread further inland over southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi through Monday morning. To account for this, the gust factor in the Forecast/Advisory has been adjusted accordingly. Ida is likely to weaken to a tropical storm by Monday morning and a tropical depression by Monday night. Some slight restrengthening as an extratropical storm is possible when Ida moves over the western Atlantic in 4 days or so. In addition, heavy rains will spread northward and then northeastward along the forecast track. Ida is expected to turn northward by early Monday as it moves in the flow on the western side of a subtropical ridge. A faster motion to the northeast is expected by Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the system, with that motion continuing through much of the remainder of the week. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south or right of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge inundation will continue through tonight along portions of the coast between Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. 2. Wind damage will occur near the core of Ida as it continues inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of Ida's center into southwestern Mississippi through early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 3. Ida will continue to produce heavy rainfall tonight through Monday across southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. As Ida moves farther inland, considerable flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 30.3N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 16
2021-08-30 04:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 300244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...IDA TURNING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 90.7W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 90.7 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, however, Ida is expected to remain a hurricane for several more hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A sustained wind of 64 mph ( 104 km/h) and a wind gust of 90 mph (145 km/h) were reported recently reported at the New Orleans International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi through Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life- threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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