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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-08-30 04:44:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 300244 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 34 37(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) JACKSON MS 50 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) JACKSON MS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 85 X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) BATON ROUGE LA 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW IBERIA LA 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-08-30 04:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 300243 TCMAT4 HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 0300 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 80SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 90.7W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 90.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 31.5N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 70 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 33.0N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 34.6N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 36.1N 85.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 37.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.9N 78.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 40.0N 72.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 40.7N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 90.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Ida Update Statement
2021-08-30 03:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT64 KNHC 300158 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 900 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station located northeast of Raceland Louisiana recently reported a sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 99 mph (159 km/h). Within the last hour the New Orleans International Airport reported a sustained wind of 64 mph (103 km/h) with a gust to 86 mph (138 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 90.6W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Andonian/Nepaul
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Summary for Hurricane Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-30 03:58:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING FURTHER INLAND... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... As of 9:00 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Ida was located near 30.1, -90.6 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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at4al092021
Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 15A
2021-08-30 01:54:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 292354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...IDA MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 90.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected overnight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion by Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of western Mississippi Monday and Monday night, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Doppler radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected during the next day or so, however, Ida is forecast to remain a hurricane through late tonight and remain a tropical storm until Monday afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) with a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently observed at New Orleans International Airport. A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust of 85 mph (137 km/h) was recently reported at Frenier Landing, Louisiana. The estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb (27.88 inches). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program observing station located northeast of Raceland, Louisiana, recently reported a minimum pressure of 945 mb (27.91). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...4-7 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Ocean Springs to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely near the core of Ida as it moves farther inland over southeastern Louisiana through this evening. Hurricane conditions will spread farther inland within the Hurricane Warning area over southeastern Louisiana tonight. Tropical storm conditions will also spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will continue to impact the southeast Louisiana coast, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life- threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast on Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Upper Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night. Middle Tennessee Valley, Upper Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash flooding along with widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be most likely through Monday over southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. A few tornadoes are also possible farther north across much of Mississippi and Alabama on Monday. SURF: Swells will continue to affect the northern Gulf coast through early Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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