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Hurricane Ida Graphics
2021-08-28 22:51:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 20:51:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Aug 2021 21:22:47 GMT
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Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-08-28 22:51:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 282051 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 Ida's satellite presentation has continued to improve this afternoon, with the eye becoming more apparent in both infrared and visible satellite imagery. The eye is surrounded by a symmetric ring of cold cloud tops and new convection with lightning as seen by the GOES-16 GLM sensor has been rotating around the western portion of the eyewall within the past few hours. The upper-level outflow has also become well established over the hurricane and several spiral bands are noted over the northern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased to T5.0 and these support increasing the initial intensity to 90 kt for this advisory. Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to be in the hurricane within the next few hours and should provide additional information on Ida's current strength. Earlier aircraft and satellite wind data indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind field has continued to expand over the eastern semicircle and the initial wind radii have been adjusted outward. The hurricane appears to have begun its anticipated rapid intensification phase. A favorable upper-level wind pattern, warm waters along the track, and a moist atmosphere are expected to allow for additional rapid strengthening overnight and early Sunday. This is again supported by the majority of the intensity models, and the NHC wind speed forecast continues to call for rapid strengthening, bringing Ida to Category 4 status within 12 to 18 hours. An eyewall replacement cycle could occur as Ida nears the northern Gulf coast, so some fluctuations in intensity are possible during that time. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Ida is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4, and it is likely to be absorbed along a frontal zone by day 5. Ida has moved a little to the right of the previous track, but the long-term motion motion is still northwestward or 320/14 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Ida is expected to continue on a northwestward heading through late Sunday as it is steered around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge near the southeastern United Stated coast. After landfall, Ida's forward motion is forecast to slow when it turns northward around the western extent of the aforementioned ridge. By Tuesday, the cyclone should reach the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies, causing it to turn north-northeastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The track guidance has nudged slightly eastward during the first 12-24 hours, primarily due to the more northeastward initial position, and this has required a slight rightward adjustment in the new official forecast at those times. The remainder of the NHC forecast is largely unchanged from before, and lies near various consensus models and the GFS ensemble mean. Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track forecast as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Rainfall impacts will also spread inland across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through early next week after Ida makes landfall. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation Sunday along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama within the Storm Surge Warning area. Extremely life-threatening inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is possible somewhere within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the coast of Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds are expected Sunday in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans, with potentially catastrophic wind damage possible where the core of Ida moves onshore. Actions to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the warning area. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi Sunday night and early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, and far southwestern Alabama, resulting in considerable to life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 26.2N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-28 22:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 the center of Ida was located near 26.2, -87.0 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 10
2021-08-28 22:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 282050 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 87.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 87.0 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion should continue through late Sunday or early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight. Ida is then expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana within the hurricane warning area on Sunday, and then move inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi later on Monday and Monday night. Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast on Sunday. Weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). NOAA buoy 42003, located about 90 miles (145 km) east of the eye, reported peak one-minuted sustained winds of 54 mph (83 km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) within the past hour or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...10-15 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...6-9 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning Sunday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by late tonight or early Sunday morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the Louisiana coast Sunday morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later Sunday into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 8 to 16 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi through Monday. This rainfall is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. Elsewhere across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southwestern Alabama and the Middle Tennessee Valley -- considerable flash and riverine flooding impacts are likely on Monday and Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches possible. Rainfall from Ida will begin to affect the Ohio Valley by mid-week, resulting in flash and riverine flooding impacts. Rainfall impacts from Ida will diminish across western Cuba this evening as the storm continues to lift northward away from the island. Additional 1 to 2 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches possible across western Cuba through this evening. These rainfall amounts may produce flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible Sunday into Monday across the northern Gulf coast states including parts of eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, central and southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. The longest duration tornado threat will exist across southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-08-28 22:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 282050 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) WHITING FLD FL 34 3 7(10) 6(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 9(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 870W 34 51 6(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) GFMX 290N 870W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 3 25(28) 15(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) MOBILE AL 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 4 57(61) 13(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GULFPORT MS 50 1 9(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GULFPORT MS 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 4 72(76) 10(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) STENNIS MS 50 1 20(21) 16(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 64 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 17 81(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 2 66(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BURAS LA 64 X 28(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 75 23(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 890W 64 33 57(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) JACKSON MS 34 1 10(11) 30(41) 10(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 4 88(92) 6(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 45(46) 31(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 18(18) 27(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) GFMX 280N 910W 34 15 68(83) 2(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GFMX 280N 910W 50 3 22(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 65(68) 26(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 18(18) 51(69) 4(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 4( 4) 34(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) MORGAN CITY LA 34 4 85(89) 8(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 42(42) 35(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 17(17) 33(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 14(15) 43(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 46(49) 35(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 8( 8) 31(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 56(59) 28(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 11(11) 33(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 3( 3) 16(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 12(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FORT POLK LA 34 X 10(10) 27(37) 4(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) FORT POLK LA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LAKE CHARLES 34 2 12(14) 26(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMERON LA 34 3 16(19) 18(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) CAMERON LA 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JASPER TX 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HOUSTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MATAGORDA TX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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