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Tropical Depression Ida Forecast Advisory Number 19

2021-08-30 22:36:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 302036 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 90.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 33.6N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.8N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 36.3N 84.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 38.0N 80.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 39.5N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 90.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON IDA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Ida (AT4/AL092021)

2021-08-30 19:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADING OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 the center of Ida was located near 32.2, -90.5 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Ida Public Advisory Number 18A

2021-08-30 19:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 301750 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 ...IDA MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SPREADING OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 90.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.45 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 90.5 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin by tonight and continue through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will move farther inland over western and central Mississippi this afternoon. Ida is then forecast to move over northeastern Mississippi tonight, and move across the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday and near the central Appalachians on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ida is expected to become a tropical depression later this afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km) mainly to southeast of the center over water. The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observations is 997 mb (29.45 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Morgan City, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...1-3 ft Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of southern Mississippi and southern Alabama through this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Tuesday morning across portions of southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, Ida will produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with localized higher amounts possible. Storm total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are expected. Heavy rain combined with storm surge has resulted in catastrophic impacts along the southeast coast of Louisiana with considerable flash flooding and riverine flooding continuing farther inland. Ida will continue to turn northeast this morning and is forecast to track across the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: An additional 4 to 8 inches resulting in storm total accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi into far western Alabama: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, today through tonight. Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. Considerable flash flooding is possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Middle Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic. Widespread minor to isolated major riverine flooding is occurring or forecast from the Lower Mississippi Valley into far western Alabama. Rivers will remain elevated into next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly across southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. The threat for a few tornadoes will shift east on Tuesday and become centered across eastern Alabama, western Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells will continue to affect portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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