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Hurricane Ida Update Statement
2021-08-29 15:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 938 WTNT64 KNHC 291355 TCUAT4 Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 900 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 102 mph (165 km/h) and a wind gust of 116 mph (187 km/h). Another elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass recently reported a sustained wind of 97 mph (156 km/h) and a gust to 121 mph (194 km/h). A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site at Pilottown, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 89.8W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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Summary for Hurricane Ida (AT4/AL092021)
2021-08-29 15:55:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF IDA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... As of 9:00 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 the center of Ida was located near 28.7, -89.8 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 930 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
Hurricane Ida Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-29 13:58:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 291158 TCDAT4 Hurricane Ida Special Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 Recent reports from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ida has continued to strengthen since the 0900 UTC advisory and the maximum winds are estimated to be 130 kt. This intensity is based on peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 146 kt that have been reported by both aircraft and believable SFMR winds of around 130 kt. The NOAA aircraft very recently reported that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 933 mb. This special advisory is issued to raise the 12-hour forecast intensity to 135 kt, but it is possible that Ida could peak slightly above that before landfall occurs. The initial motion estimate is 320/13 kt, slightly faster than the previous forecast. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point has also been adjusted slightly. No other changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts. The initial and forecast 64-kt wind radii were adjusted outward in the northeast and southeast quadrants based on aircraft data. Note that this Special advisory replaces the regular 1200 UTC (700 AM CDT) intermediate public advisory. Key Messages: 1. Extremely life-threatening storm surge inundation of 9 feet or greater above ground level is imminent somewhere within the area from Burns Point, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher. Interests throughout the Storm Surge Warning area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours. Hurricane-force winds are expected today within the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. 3. Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland near the track of the center of Ida across portions of southeastern Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi today through early Monday. These winds will likely lead to widespread tree damage and power outages. 4. Ida will produce heavy rainfall today through Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, to far southwestern Alabama resulting in considerable to life- threatening flash and urban flooding and significant river flooding impacts. As Ida moves inland, significant flooding impacts are possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1200Z 28.5N 89.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 90.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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Hurricane Ida Public Advisory Number 13
2021-08-29 13:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291157 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Ida Special Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 700 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * East of Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to west of Intracoastal City Louisiana * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ida was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 89.6 West. Ida is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight and early Monday, followed by a slower northward motion on Monday afternoon. A northeastward turn is forecast by Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ida will make landfall along the coast of southeastern Louisiana within the hurricane warning area late this morning or early this afternoon. Ida is then forecast to move well inland over portions of Louisiana and western Mississippi on Monday and Monday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Ida is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Ida is expected to be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust to 113 mph (181 km/h). Another NOAA elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 933 mb (27.55 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ida can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...12-16 ft Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...8-12 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Bay St. Louis, MS including Lake Borgne...8-12 ft Burns Point, LA to Morgan City, LA...6-9 ft Bay St. Louis, MS to Ocean Springs, MS...6-9 ft Lake Pontchartrain...5-8 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...4-7 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA including Vermilion Bay...4-6 ft Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Pecan Island, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...2-4 ft MS/AL border to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Sabine Pass to Pecan Island, LA...1-3 ft AL/FL border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line including Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is likely where the core of Ida moves onshore along the southeast coast of Louisiana in the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area along the Louisiana coast beginning by later this morning with tropical storm conditions expected to begin by early this morning. These conditions will spread inland over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi tonight and Monday. RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall from Ida will begin to impact the southeast Louisiana coast this morning, spreading northeast into the Lower Mississippi Valley later today into Monday. Total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 18 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 24 inches are possible across southeast Louisiana into far southern Mississippi through Monday. This is likely to result in life-threatening flash and urban flooding and significant riverine flooding impacts. Ida is forecast to turn to the northeast early Monday and track across the Middle Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley through Wednesday, producing the following rainfall totals: Coastal Alabama to the far western Florida panhandle: 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches, today through Tuesday morning. Central Mississippi: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, tonight through Monday night. Middle Tennessee Valley to the Ohio Valley: 3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts, Tuesday into Wednesday. These rainfall totals will result in considerable flash and riverine flooding. TORNADOES: Tornadoes will be possible today into Monday from southeast Louisiana across southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama to the western Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells are beginning to reach the northern Gulf coast and will continue to affect that area through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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Hurricane Ida Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-08-29 13:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 000 FONT14 KNHC 291157 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IDA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1200 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 870W 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 12 16(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MOBILE AL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 72 12(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) GULFPORT MS 50 6 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 92 4(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) STENNIS MS 50 17 29(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) STENNIS MS 64 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BURAS LA 64 26 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 4 37(41) 21(62) 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) JACKSON MS 50 1 4( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 74 21(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 14 54(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) GFMX 280N 910W 34 75 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GFMX 280N 910W 50 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 84 15(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 11 75(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BATON ROUGE LA 64 2 54(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MORGAN CITY LA 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 57 31(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MORGAN CITY LA 64 10 47(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 5 50(55) 5(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 1 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 45 43(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) LAFAYETTE LA 50 4 29(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 64 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 66 26(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NEW IBERIA LA 50 6 33(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FORT POLK LA 34 4 20(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) FORT POLK LA 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 19(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) LAKE CHARLES 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 5 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) CAMERON LA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUSTON TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FREEPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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