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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-09-22 10:32:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220832 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.6W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.6W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 21.3N 48.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.9N 47.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.6N 46.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...130NE 190SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.8N 46.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 190SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 22.0N 46.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 200SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 25.2N 48.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 48.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-22 05:09:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2015 02:45:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2015 03:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-09-22 04:50:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220250 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 Ida's cloud pattern has become increasingly disorganized. Satellite data indicate that the large separation between the cyclone's low- to mid-level centers persists as a result of a strong west- northwesterly shear. The nearest deep convection, coincident with the mid-level center, remains well removed to the southeast. The initial wind speed is conservatively lowered to 40 kt and is above the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. The tail of a large mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to sweep southward over Ida during the next 24 hours. Even stronger deep-layer northwesterly shear and confluence aloft associated with this feature should adversely affect the storm during the next few days, and cause weakening. One could envision Ida not surviving such a greatly inhospitable environment. However, global models depict Ida remaining a coherent feature and eventually re-strengthening, though Ida's forecast intensification occurs in different ways. The ECMWF has consistently shown Ida re- strengthening, seemingly as a consequence of baroclinic forcing from the trough interaction. Such an interaction could potentially result in Ida's taking on the characteristics of a hybrid cyclone. The GFS shows Ida becoming disentangled from the trough, and re-intensifying after the trough lifts out. Regardless of which scenario occurs, any re-strengthening of Ida as a tropical cyclone would likely be tempered by substantially drier air on the backside of the trough being entrained by the cyclone. The new intensity forecast is lower than the previous one in the short term due to the overall harsh environment affecting the storm. A modest increase in strength is shown at the end of the forecast, similar to the previous forecast. The definition of Ida's center has been deteriorating, and it has thus become harder to track. It appears though the the cyclone's forward speed has been decreasing, and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 340/04. The deep layer west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow, associated with the trough overtaking Ida, could impart a slow eastward or east-southeastward motion for a couple of days. After that, the bulk of the track guidance shows Ida caught between two mid-level ridges, which should induce a north- northwestward and then northward motion at a gradually increasing forward speed. Only the GFS shows Ida encountering a blocking ridge with a track much farther to the west, a solution very different than its ensemble mean. The new track has been adjusted somewhat to the east overall through 72 hours and is a little faster than the previous one, in good agreement with a model consensus without the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.7N 49.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.9N 49.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 21.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 20.9N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 20.9N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 22.3N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 24.4N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 26.2N 48.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Storm IDA (AT5/AL102015)
2015-09-22 04:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IDA POORLY ORGANIZED... ...SLOWING DOWN FURTHER... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 21 the center of IDA was located near 21.7, -49.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm IDA Public Advisory Number 15
2015-09-22 04:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220245 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015 ...IDA POORLY ORGANIZED... ...SLOWING DOWN FURTHER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 49.5W ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ida was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 49.5 West. Ida is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north and northeast with a substantial decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and early on Tuesday. A slow eastward or east- southeastward motion is expected later Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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