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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-09-19 22:34:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 192034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-09-19 22:33:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 2100 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 40.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.4N 42.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N 44.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 46.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 20.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 20.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 47.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 40.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm IDA Graphics
2015-09-19 16:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 14:35:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 14:52:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm IDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-09-19 16:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191434 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 As was noted yesterday, Ida will have an obstacle course to navigate during the next several days, and the storm already appears to have encountered its first hurdle. Westerly shear, on the order of 20 kt according to UW-CIMSS analyses, has begun to affect the cyclone, and the low-level center is now exposed to the northwest of the deep convection. Dvorak CI numbers remain 2.5, and the initial intensity therefore remains 35 kt. The SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical shear should be steady or even increase slightly during the next 24 hours, so only slow strengthening is anticipated during that time. The best window for more significant intensification appears to be between 36 and 72 hours when the shear is forecast to decrease. Another round of increased shear on days 4 and 5 should limit strengthening or induce weakening. The intensity models are split on Ida's future intensity, with the SHIPS and LGEM models only modestly strengthening the cyclone through day 5 while the GFDL and HWRF models bring Ida to hurricane strength by day 3. Due to the uncertainty of how Ida will interact with the complex environment around it, the NHC intensity forecast is a bit below the intensity consensus and is very similar to the previous forecast. Low- to mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of Ida is inducing a slightly faster west-northwestward motion, or 295/10 kt. The ridge is expected to weaken within the next 48 hours, leaving Ida between two deep-layer lows, one located over the eastern Atlantic and the other northeast of the Leeward Islands. This should cause Ida to become nearly stationary or meander by days 3 through 5. With the exception of the UKMET model, the other track models seem to be trending toward a solution in which the eastern Atlantic trough has at least some influence on Ida's motion, and the updated NHC track forecast now shows a slow eastward drift on days 4 and 5. Overall though, the NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 14.8N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 15.7N 41.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 16.9N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 18.2N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 19.3N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 20.5N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 20.5N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm IDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-09-19 16:34:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 191434 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102015 1500 UTC SAT SEP 19 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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