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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-13 22:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 304 WTPZ21 KNHC 132033 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
2019-07-27 16:35:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2019 14:35:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2019 15:24:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-07-27 16:33:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 271433 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 The area of disturbed weather that NHC has been tracking for several days across the eastern Pacific has developed enough organized convection near the center of circulation, and is now classified as a 30-kt tropical depression. This is supported by T2.0 Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB. The depression is embedded within a good environment for intensification of low shear and high SSTs. Despite the environment, most of the models show only a very modest strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little more aggressive than the models and is above the intensity consensus. The depression is anticipated to become a tropical storm later today and reach hurricane status by the end of the forecast period. The depression is well embedded within the deep easterly flow south of a subtropical ridge and is moving westward at 16 kt. Since this steering flow pattern is not forecast to change much, the cyclone should continue on a general west or west-northwest track through the next 5 days, perhaps with a small decrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and very near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062019)
2019-07-27 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Jul 27 the center of Six-E was located near 11.3, -123.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-07-27 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 271433 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062019 500 AM HST Sat Jul 27 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... ...NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 123.8W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 2160 MI...3475 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of the newly formed Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 123.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion with a gradual turn to the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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