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Tropical Depression Six-E Graphics
2020-07-13 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 20:35:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 13 Jul 2020 21:24:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-13 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 719 WTPZ41 KNHC 132034 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional, microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12 hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA. The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18 hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Six-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-13 22:33:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 132033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six-E (EP1/EP062020)
2020-07-13 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 the center of Six-E was located near 16.6, -112.6 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-13 22:33:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 132033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 112.6W ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 112.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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