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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Public Advisory Number 3A
2017-10-28 13:42:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT33 KNHC 281142 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 84.0W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 84.0 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move across western Cuba this afternoon, across the Straits of Florida tonight, and across the northwestern Bahamas Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to assess the strength of the disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the central Bahamas tonight or early Sunday. TORNADOES: A couple of brief tornadoes are possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys from midday through this evening. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Graphics
2017-10-28 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 08:43:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 08:43:10 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2017-10-28 10:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 FONT13 KNHC 280839 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182017 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MIAMI FL 34 X 11(11) 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 16(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 18(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) KEY WEST FL 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 36(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ANDROS 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 34 23 7(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CIENFUEGOS 34 1 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-10-28 10:39:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280839 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 Scatterometer data from several hours ago indicated that the disturbance consists of a broad circulation with a 100-150 n mi wide area of light winds (less than 10 kt) and an equally as large radius of maximum winds. The system still does not appear to have a well-defined center of circulation, and in fact, the ASCAT data also showed that the maximum winds are down to about 30 kt. The associated deep convection is rather disorganized but has been increasing in coverage near the estimated center during the past few hours. While the exact center is difficult to locate, the disturbance's circulation appears to be moving just east of due north, or 010/9 kt. The disturbance is beginning to accelerate in the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough located over the eastern three-quarters of the United States, and this pattern is expected to cause the system to turn northeastward and accelerate further during the next couple of days. Although the track models are in agreement on this general scenario, the overall guidance envelope has shifted a little westward, most likely as a result of a repositioning of the disturbance's current location. The new NHC forecast has therefore been nudged westward as well, lying closest to HCCA and TVCA models through 36 hours. The disturbance is currently located in its best environment shear-wise, but the system's broad and elongated structure is likely delaying intensification. Although the shear will be increasing, it should remain low enough for the next 12-18 hours to support some strengthening if the circulation can tighten up. In addition, upper-level divergence is expected to increase, which should also support some strengthening. Since the disturbance has such a broad circulation, the NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity trends of the GFS and is not too different from the previous advisory. The system is now expected to merge with a cold front and be extratropical by 48 hours and then dissipate by 72 hours. Even though the track forecast has shifted a little closer to South Florida and the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are expected to be well to the east and southeast of the center over the Atlantic waters and the Bahamas. Therefore, tropical storm watches or warnings do not appear necessary for Florida at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 19.6N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 28/1800Z 21.7N 82.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 29/0600Z 24.9N 80.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 34.2N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen (AT3/AL182017)
2017-10-28 10:38:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Eighteen was located near 19.6, -84.2 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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