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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 4
2021-06-18 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 181440 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.5N 91.1W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued from Morgan City westward to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast tonight or early Saturday. A slow northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is likely after landfall through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and a subtropical or tropical storm is likely to form over the central or northern Gulf of Mexico later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected across portions of the Central Gulf Coast beginning today. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, anticipate heavy rain to expand across southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, and central Georgia resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of 8 inches across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. TORNADOES: The threat for a tornado or two will begin this afternoon across coastal Louisiana, then spread overnight into Saturday across southern portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, to the western Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-06-18 16:40:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 181440 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 34 X 18(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) STENNIS MS 34 X 28(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 26(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 33(33) 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 21 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-18 16:39:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 181439 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 1500 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM MORGAN CITY WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 91.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 28.2N 90.9W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.3N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.1N 88.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.4N 86.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.5N 83.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.5N 91.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 18/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Graphics
2021-06-18 13:36:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 11:36:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Jun 2021 09:22:36 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-18 13:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 26.0, -91.5 with movement N at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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