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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 190244 TCDAT3 Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation associated with the broad low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico is slowly getting better defined, and several swirls of low-level clouds/vorticity centers were apparent in visible imagery just before dark. However, surface data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the surface wind field is more like a trough elongated NNE-SSW from southeastern Louisiana into the Gulf. In addition, the convection associated with the system is mostly well to the northeast of the swirls. Based on this, the low will remain as a potential tropical cyclone, as it has not yet put all of the pieces together to be called a tropical or subtropical cyclone. There is again little change to the track forecast reasoning. The initial motion is a little slower than before at 010/11. This general motion should continue until the system reaches the northern Gulf coast in the next 6 h or so. After the system moves inland, a turn to the northeast and then east-northeast across the southeast U.S. is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in the westerlies on the north side of the subtropical ridge. The new forecast is a little faster and a little south of the previous forecast after 36 h based on the latest guidance, but other than that there are no significant changes. Time is running out for the system to develop further before landfall. However, it should be noted that in this case landfall will not instantly put an end to the chances of tropical or subtropical cyclone development, as much of the associated strong winds and convection will remain over water for at least 12 h. After that time, the system should be far enough inland to cause weakening to start. One note is that all of the global models except the GFS now forecast the low to survive for more than 72 h. The new intensity forecast will not change the dissipation time for now. However, if the 00Z global models continue this trend, subsequent advisories may need to show a longer life for the system. Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center. Impacts along the northern Gulf coast will continue regardless of whether there is any additional development. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding, continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf Coast, with flood impacts spreading northeastward into the southern Appalachians and portions of the Southeast. 2. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along portions of the central Gulf Coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida, including New Orleans. These winds will spread inland and continue into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 28.9N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 19/1200Z 30.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 20/0000Z 31.9N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 20/1200Z 33.2N 85.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 21/0000Z 34.1N 82.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 21/1200Z 35.5N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190243 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 90.9W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 90.9W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.9N 88.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 33.2N 85.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.1N 82.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 35.5N 79.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 90.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (AT3/AL032021)
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 the center of Three was located near 28.9, -90.9 with movement N at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Public Advisory Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 190243 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...DISTURBANCE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 90.9W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida. * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6-12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the northern Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 90.9 West. The system is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, with a turn toward the east-northeast expected by Saturday night or Sunday. On the forecast track, the system should moved inland over Louisiana during the next several hours, then move across portions of the Gulf coast and southeastern states through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is still a high chance the system will become a tropical or subtropical storm through Saturday morning while the center is over or near water. The system is expected to begin weakening Saturday afternoon as it moves farther inland. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) mainly to the east of the center. Several oil rigs of off the coast of southeastern Louisiana have recently reported sustained winds of 40-45 mph (65-70 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the Central Gulf Coast. Considerable flash, urban and small stream flooding impacts as well as new and renewed minor to isolated moderate river flooding are likely. As the system continues to lift northeast through the weekend, heavy rain will expand across the interior Southeast and western Carolinas, resulting in rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor river flooding impacts are possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Morgan City, LA to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL...2-3 ft Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay...2-3 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-2 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Panama City, FL...1-2 ft Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-2 ft Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-2 ft Vermilion Bay...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue along the coast in the warning area through Saturday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Saturday across southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle into southwest Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-06-19 04:44:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 190243 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 19 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 7 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 11(14) 11(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) WHITING FLD FL 34 13 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 34 16 10(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GFMX 290N 870W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 63 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 15 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MORGAN CITY LA 34 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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