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Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-23 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 the center of Marty was located near 20.5, -112.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marty Graphics
2021-08-23 10:37:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 08:37:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Aug 2021 08:37:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-23 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Recent scatterometer wind data indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined. In addition, convective activity has persisted and expanded over the western portion of the circulation overnight, resulting in Dvorak T-numbers of 1.5 and 2.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Both ASCAT-A and B instruments revealed 30 to 35 kt winds over the western portion of the circulation and based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Marty, the thirteenth named-storm of the 2021 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Marty is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge that extends from the south-central United States westward across northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific is forecast to steer Marty westward over the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to weaken and become vertically shallow. This should cause it to turn toward the west-southwest as it steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The dynamical model guidance is in excellent agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the tightly clustered model envelope. Although the tropical storm is currently located over warm waters, it is within an area of moderate northeasterly shear. In addition, it is likely to ingest drier and more stable air located to the northwest of the system over the next couple of days. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast. By 36 hours, Marty is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and gradual weakening is anticipated after that time. Less favorable thermodynamic conditions should result in the system becoming a remnant low in 60 to 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 20.0N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-23 10:36:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230836 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 9 54(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 115W 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-23 10:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... ...FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 the center of Marty was located near 20.0, -111.0 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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