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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 28
2017-10-16 04:51:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160251 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0300 UTC MON OCT 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 38 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 240SE 240SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 400SE 660SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.2N 13.3W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.6N 13.4W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 70SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 140SE 140SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 140SW 120NW. 34 KT...220NE 290SE 290SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 61.9N .1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.2N 13.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-15 22:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2017 20:46:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Oct 2017 21:23:00 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 27
2017-10-15 22:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 152042 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and shortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level centers are becoming separated. However, some deep convection is still present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC indicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is separated from a front to the north and west. The estimated maximum winds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay of the cloud structure. However, the cyclone's favorable position relative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to deepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially. Only a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland. After that time, interaction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to weaken more rapidly. Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is likely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of Scandinavia. Ophelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the initial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded within the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough. This should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over Ireland and the UK on Monday. The dynamical guidance remains in very good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change has been made to the track forecast. Since Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the UK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than the center. For more information on local impacts, consult products from local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom for more information. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. 2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of the NHC forecast cone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 44.6N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2017-10-15 22:41:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 152041 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 2100 UTC SUN OCT 15 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 13.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Ophelia (AT2/AL172017)
2017-10-15 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 15 the center of Ophelia was located near 44.6, -13.3 with movement NNE at 38 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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