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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2017-10-14 16:38:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 141438 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 22
2017-10-14 16:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141437 TCMAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 1500 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE AZORES WEATHER FORECAST AND WATCH CENTER. INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET EIREANN... AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 26.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 110SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 200SE 210SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 26.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 27.7W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 110SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 25SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 70SE 65SW 35NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 210SE 220SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 170SE 150SW 160NW. 34 KT...230NE 270SE 240SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...270NE 330SE 240SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 26.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane Ophelia Graphics
2017-10-14 11:04:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 09:04:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Oct 2017 09:04:16 GMT
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Hurricane Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-10-14 10:58:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140858 TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 Ophelia's 20-nmi-diameter eye has continued to become more distinct and cloud-free, with the eye temperature now reaching 15 deg C. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from TAFB to T5.0/90 kt from SAB and T5.5/102 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. For now, the initial intensity will remain at 85 kt, which is an average of the available intensity estimates. The initial motion estimate is 060/21 kt. Ophelia is embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow on the east side of a broad mid-latitude trough. The global and regional models remain in excellent agreement on the trough amplifying over the next 3-4 days, which will cause the hurricane to accelerate toward the northeast at forward speeds near 30 kt by 48 hours. The tight clustering of the NHC model guidance, which shows very little cross-track or along-track spread, increases the confidence in the official track. As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the new forecast track remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus models. Ophelia is expected to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear environment for the next 12 hours or so, which should help the hurricane retain much of its current intensity during that time, even though SSTs are only going to be 24-25C. However, upper-level temperatures that are still about 2 deg C cooler than normal, which will help to create sufficient instability to continue to drive the development of inner-core convection. By 36 hours or so, the shear is forecast to increase to 30-40 kt and the troposphere is expected to become stable as sea-surface temperatures decrease to less than 20 deg C. However, even those SST values are about 2 deg C warmer than normal for this time of the year. Those above-average ocean temperatures are forecast to combine with strong baroclinic energy associated with a potent, negatively tilted, upper-level trough, causing Ophelia to transition into a powerful extratropical low pressure system. By 48 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to maintain sustained hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland, with stronger winds expected over higher terrain. Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96 hours, Ophelia should have weakened due to the interaction with land, causing the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is expected shortly thereafter. Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or the UK for another 48-60 hours, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front. However, any track deviation to the west could bring stronger winds associated with Ophelia's circulation to those islands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 33.9N 28.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 35.3N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 38.3N 20.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 43.0N 16.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/0600Z 48.4N 12.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 17/0600Z 57.4N 6.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z 63.1N .5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2017-10-14 10:54:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 140854 PWSAT2 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172017 0900 UTC SAT OCT 14 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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