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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-01 22:35:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 012035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 29.4W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 29.4W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 28.4W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.6N 31.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.0N 34.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.7N 38.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.6N 40.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 19.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 29.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Storm Larry (AT2/AL122021)
2021-09-01 20:29:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LARRY GETTING STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:30 PM CVT Wed Sep 1 the center of Larry was located near 12.4, -28.5 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Larry Update Statement
2021-09-01 20:29:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 530 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 827 WTNT62 KNHC 011829 TCUAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 530 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 ...LARRY GETTING STRONGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... Recent satellite intensity estimates indicate that Larry's maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h), with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 530 PM CVT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 28.5W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Larry Graphics
2021-09-01 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 14:52:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 14:52:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-09-01 16:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 011450 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Larry is becoming better organized, with curved convective bands increasing around the center. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates were in the 35-55 kt range around 12Z, and ASCAT data near the time showed 40 kt winds. Based on increasing organization since that time, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. Larry is moving quickly westward, although there is some uncertainty in the forward speed due to the possibility the center re-formed during the night. The best estimate of the motion is 270/19 kt. As noted in the previous advisory, the cyclone is expected to move around the southern and southwestern periphery of the sprawling Bermuda-Azores ridge for the next 5 days, resulting in a general west motion for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and, by 96-120 h, a turn toward the northwest. After 36 h, there is some spread in the track guidance, with the GFS generally on the right side of the guidance envelope and the UKMET on the left side, a spread often seen for westward-moving cyclones south of the Bermuda-Azores high. Due to a more westerly initial position, the guidance has shifted a little more to the west, and the new forecast track is again shifted to the west of the previous track. The new forecast lies a little to the south of the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 48-60 h due to light shear, a moist environment, and sea surface temperatures of 27-28C along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast calls for Larry to become a hurricane in about 24 h and a major hurricane near 60 h. After that time, the global models suggest the possibility of dry air entrainment, and by 120 h there is likely to be moderate westerly shear over the cyclone. Based on this forecast environment and the guidance trends, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength from 72-120 h. The new intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 12.3N 27.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 12.4N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 12.7N 33.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.2N 36.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.9N 39.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 15.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.0N 52.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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