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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 84.1W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Gulf coast of Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no tropical cyclone coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight strengthening possible Sunday night and Monday when Post-Tropical Nestor moves over the western Atlantic. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km), east of the center over Atlantic waters just offshore the Georgia coast. The NOAA buoy at Gray's Reef, Georgia, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States. WIND: Gale-force winds will develop along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. TORNADOES: A tornado remains possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula and coastal Georgia this afternoon and early evening, with a few tornadoes possible tonight through Sunday morning across the coastal Carolinas. STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside through tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nestor. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-10-19 22:41:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 192041 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 2100 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 11(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) RALEIGH NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 44(44) 15(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 61(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CHERRY PT NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 56(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 60(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 66(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) SURF CITY NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 68(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 64(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 23 29(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) COLUMBIA SC 34 27 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 67(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 15 59(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 32 41(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 66 11(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) CHARLESTON SC 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 27 X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) SAVANNAH GA 34 89 X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) SAVANNAH GA 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Graphics
2019-10-19 19:59:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 17:59:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 15:24:34 GMT
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-19 19:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nestor was located near 29.7, -85.1 with movement ENE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 9A
2019-10-19 19:59:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191759 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...NESTOR MAKES LANDFALL ON ST. VINCENT ISLAND FLORIDA... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE GULF COAST OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 85.1W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Ochlockonee River, Florida, and south of the Suwanee River, Florida. All Storm Surge Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Suwanee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 85.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is accelerating toward the east-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move farther inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected now that Nestor has moved inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east of the center over Apalachee Bay and also off the Georgia coast. Offshore buoys and coastal marine observing stations along the coast of west-central Florida, including the mouth of Tampa Bay, have recently been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels will continue to subside today and tonight along the Gulf coast of Florida. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. The warning will likely be discontinued later this afternoon. Gale-force winds are expected to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today and tonight. RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through this afternoon over east-central Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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