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Tropical Storm Nestor Public Advisory Number 8A
2019-10-19 13:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191143 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nestor Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...NESTOR STEADILY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 86.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Nestor has redeveloped farther west near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 86.8 West. Nestor is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). Some erratic motion toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected through this morning. A turn toward the east-northeast is forecast to occur Sunday. On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle late this morning or early afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday as a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday also as a post-tropical cyclone. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the coast, but weakening is forecast to begin after the cyclone moves inland. Nestor is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post-tropical by early afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) mainly to the east of the center. The Tyndall AFB Tower located south of Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 49 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 61 mph (98 km/h) at an elevation of 115 ft (35 m). A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida, recently measured a water level of 3.2 ft above Mean Higher High Water. The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will continue through this afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today. RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in the northern and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Nestor Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2019-10-19 11:30:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 09:30:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nestor Graphics
2019-10-19 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 08:43:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 08:43:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Nestor Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-10-19 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 190838 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Nestor is rapidly losing the few tropical characteristics that it once had. The cloud pattern consists of a large circulation of low clouds with a comma-shape convective band well to the east of the circulation. This band is already over a large portion of the Florida peninsula. The center of the system or the area of minimum pressure could be anywhere within this gyre, and the precise location is uncertain. Surrounding data and ASCAT measurements suggest that the winds have decreased to 45 kt. All indications are that no significant strengthening is anticipated before the broad circulation moves inland later today, and guidance suggests that Nestor will lose its tropical characteristics while moving across the southeastern United States. The weaker extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold front in about 4 days or sooner. Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is highly uncertain. It appears that cyclone has slowed down but it should resume a motion toward northeast or 045 degrees at about 15 kt. Most of the track models are in good agreement that this general motion should continue, and the broad circulation will move inland over the Florida Panhandle later today and across portions of Georgia and the Carolinas later tonight and Sunday. Given the non-tropical appearance of Nestor, dangerous storm surge and tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's center today. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center. 3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern United States into Sunday morning. 4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 29.0N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 30.7N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 33.5N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 36.0N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 37.0N 71.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z 37.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2019-10-19 10:38:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 190838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 41(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 21(21) 13(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 21(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ST MARKS FL 34 69 X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) APALACHICOLA 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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