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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Public Advisory Number 9
2019-10-19 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 191451 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019 ...NESTOR LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE STILL AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 86.3W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Indian Pass, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Yankeetown Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), satellite imagery, NOAA Doppler weather radar data, and surface observations indicate that the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning and early afternoon, followed by a motion toward the northeast by tonight and early Sunday. On the forecast track, Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the Florida coast, followed by slight weakening after the cyclone moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) from the center, mainly to the east and southeast of the center. A private weather station at Bald Point on Apalachee Bay, Florida, recently measured a sustained wind of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (91 km/h). Buoys just offshore the coast of west-central Florida have been reporting tropical-storm-force wind gusts to 50 mph (80 km/h) in some of the heavier squalls during the past couple of hours. A National Ocean Service tide gauge at Apalachicola, Florida, recently measured a water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water. The minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is estimated to be 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area through this afternoon. Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States later today. RAINFALL: Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeast United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in central and northern Florida, and this afternoon and tonight over coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-10-19 16:51:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 191451 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) RALEIGH NC 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 2( 2) 37(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 7( 7) 32(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 8( 8) 32(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 17(17) 24(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 22(22) 19(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 27(27) 16(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 26(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) FLORENCE SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 35(35) 8(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 39(39) 4(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 41(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 40(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 36(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) KINGS BAY GA 34 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WAYCROSS GA 34 14 22(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) MAYPORT NS FL 34 4 9(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 6 10(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) ST MARKS FL 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) APALACHICOLA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-10-19 16:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 191450 TCMAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NESTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 1500 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS FLORIDA TO CLEARWATER BEACH FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING. A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 160SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 240SE 120SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 86.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 86.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 31.0N 83.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.1N 79.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 36.0N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.6N 71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 36.4N 66.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 86.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Nestor Graphics
2019-10-19 13:43:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 11:43:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Oct 2019 09:24:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Nestor (AT1/AL162019)
2019-10-19 13:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND STORM SURGE AFFECTING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...NESTOR STEADILY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 the center of Nestor was located near 29.5, -86.8 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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