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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

2016-09-10 13:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

000 ABNT20 KNHC 101136 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure is located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although the shower activity associated with the system has not become any better organized since yesterday, conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form by early next week while this disturbance moves toward the west-northwest and then toward the northwest over the central Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent Satellite and radar data indicate that the weak area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken while it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent $$ Forecaster Avila

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