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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-10-04 01:07:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 032306 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Oct 3 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Shower and thunderstorm activity in association with the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is beginning to show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to steadily become more conducive for development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression within the next few days. The large disturbance should move slowly northwestward to northward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Thursday or Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of this system over the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Wednesday afternoon, if necessary. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A trough of low pressure located over central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Reports from land stations along the southeastern Florida coast, in the northwestern Bahamas, and from nearby ships, indicate that wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph have been occurring in some of the heavier showers. Although significant development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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