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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2017-10-04 13:44:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 041144 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea have become better organized since yesterday. This system is expected to become a tropical depression later today while it moves northwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua. The low should move slowly northwestward across or near the eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras on Thursday, move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by Friday, and emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras, the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as watches or warnings could be issued later today. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Regardless of development, this system will produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, likely causing flash floods and mudslides. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. A trough of low pressure located over west-central Cuba and extending northward into the Straits of Florida is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula of Florida, the northwestern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Although significant tropical development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, brief squalls will likely produce locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds over portions of the Bahamas and the southern Florida peninsula during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake
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