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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 21
2015-06-15 22:56:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152056 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Carlos found 700 mb flight-level winds of 69 kt along with SFMR surface winds of 64-67 kt in light rain areas. Two dropsondes released in the eyewall also reported surface winds of 62 and 64 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity of Carlos has been increased to 65 kt, making the cyclone a category 1 hurricane once again. The initial motion estimate is 285/05 kt. The latest NHC model guidance has maintained a bifurcation in the track forecasts after 36-48 hours. The UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the BAM models continue to take a significantly weaker cyclone off to the west, whereas the ECMWF and GFDL models, and now the GFS model as well, keep Carlos a little stronger and closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Given the relative weakness of the mid-level ridge to the north and northeast of Carlos, which is expected to further weaken as the large low pressure system currently located over the west-central Gulf of Mexico moves across Texas in 24-48 hours, a forecast track to the west-northwest and closer to the coast of Mexico is the preferred scenario at this time. The NHC official track forecast lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, GFDL, and GFS forecast tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico. The general trend in the models is for the vertical wind shear to continue to weaken to around 5 kt by 24 hours. The combination of light shear and warm SSTs of around 29C could result in some slight strengthening during the next day or so. However, given the compact nature of Carlos, any fluctuations in intensity should be short-lived, so the official forecast calls for a steady intensity during that time. By 72 hours, Carlos will be moving into unfavorable thermodynamic conditions and could also be interacting with the higher terrain of Mexico, resulting in the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression by 72 hours, and degenerating into a remnant low by 96 hours. Dissipation of the small storm is expected by 120 hrs, if not sooner. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the LGEM model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.0N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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