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Hurricane CARLOS Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-06-16 22:40:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162040 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032015 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015 Carlos is a feisty little hurricane. Despite the hurricane's satellite presentation, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds between 80-85 kt. The maximum surface winds are therefore estimated to be 80 kt. The flight meteorologist also indicated that Carlos's eye was about 7-8 n mi wide. There continues to be low confidence in the intensity forecast, since none of the models seem to be able to handle Carlos's size particularly well. The statistical- dynamical models keep Carlos as a hurricane for another three days or so, while the global and regional dynamical models indicate fast weakening (the ECMWF shows dissipation within 24 hours!). The NHC official intensity forecast indicates gradual weakening through day 3, with dissipation by day 4. However, Carlos's small size makes it susceptible to large swings in intensity, and even a slight increase in shear or dry air could lead to faster weakening than indicated. Based on the aircraft fixes, Carlos appears to have turned northwestward, or 305/4 kt, toward a break in the subtropical ridge located over northern Mexico and Texas. Since the most reliable track models dissipate the cyclone so soon, the official forecast relies on the remaining available guidance (GFDL, NAVGEM, and GFNI) more than usual. The updated NHC track forecast is essentially a blend of the available guidance and the previous official forecast. Due to the high uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, the tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the coast of Mexico will be unchanged. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.8N 104.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 18.2N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 18.9N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 19.6N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 20.2N 106.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 21.6N 107.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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