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Hurricane CRISTINA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-06-13 04:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130231 TCDEP3 HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032014 800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014 Cristina has weakened during the last several hours. The eye has lost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images. In addition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the convection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to mid-level dry air and some westerly shear. Dvorak intensity numbers from all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is lowered to 105 kt based on those estimates. Cristina is expected to continue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment, including progressively colder waters during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account for the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the intensity model consensus IVCN. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. After that time, the weakening and shallower system should turn westward steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 17.3N 108.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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